Count the equal parts that match, and all the equal parts. The chance is a fraction: 3 matching parts out of 8 is 3/8. More matching parts means more likely.
outcomeone possible result
probabilityhow likely something is, often as a fraction
certainsure to happen
impossiblecan't happen
Watch for: Using the number of different letters as the bottom instead of all the equal parts. Putting the parts that don't match on top. Listing an outcome twice when a spinner repeats a number.
At home: Put a few colored socks or blocks in a bag. Ask how likely each color is, then pull one out and put it back many times, tallying each color.
Sample sheet and answer key
Luna's Space Adventure
Grade 4 · Chance and probability · 4.PS.2
NameDate
Astronaut Luna is exploring a far-off corner of space. Solve each problem to help Luna's mission go smoothly!
How likely?
Pick one without looking, or spin once. Write impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely or certain.
land on B
land on A
a planet
land on C
a rocket
a star
Chance as a fraction
Parts landed on ÷ all the equal parts. Write the fraction.
landing on B
landing on C
landing on A
Think it through
A bag has 1 star, 2 planets and 5 rockets. Pick one without looking. Which is more likely, a star or a planet?
A spinner has 5 equal parts: 1, 2, 1, 2, 4. List every possible outcome.
Sheet
Luna's Space Adventure
Grade 4 · Chance and probability · 4.PS.2
Answer key
Astronaut Luna is exploring a far-off corner of space. Solve each problem to help Luna's mission go smoothly!
How likely?
Pick one without looking, or spin once. Write impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely or certain.
land on Bcertain
land on Aunlikely
a planetimpossible
land on Cequally likely
a rocketlikely
a starunlikely
Chance as a fraction
Parts landed on ÷ all the equal parts. Write the fraction.
landing on B16
landing on C28
landing on A38
Think it through
A bag has 1 star, 2 planets and 5 rockets. Pick one without looking. Which is more likely, a star or a planet?a planet
A spinner has 5 equal parts: 1, 2, 1, 2, 4. List every possible outcome.1, 2, 4
Answer key
New problems every time, three levels (gentle, core and stretch), themes to pick from, a second page if you want one. Each sheet comes with an answer key and a one-page guide for grown-ups.
